DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
15-8 | Road
125
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
7-16 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
MAVERICKS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
26.7%
DAL By 8-14 points
18.2%
TOR By 1-7 points
23.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
116.93
DALLAS
Toronto
115.13
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Dallas
112
DALLAS
Toronto
114
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
DAL @ TOR
92 - 122
Oct 26, 2025
TOR @ DAL
129 - 139
Apr 11, 2025
TOR @ DAL
102 - 124
Dec 7, 2024
DAL @ TOR
125 - 118
Feb 28, 2024
DAL @ TOR
136 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.5% more
Dallas: 7.6
vs
Toronto: 5.1
Steals (L5)
+28.5% more
Dallas: 8.9
vs
Toronto: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.4%
Dallas: 46.1%
vs
Toronto: 32.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
Dallas: 51.4%
vs
Toronto: 46.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
116.9
125
TOR Score
115.1
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 46.1
38.5 / 37.8
Assists
27.8 / 27.3
37.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.1 / 7.6
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 51.4
46.2 / 46.9
Free Throw %
75.6 / 74.5
94.4 / 86.5
Rebounding
47.7 / 49.3
39.0 / 52.0
Steals
6.4 / 8.9
13.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
18.5 / 17.2
13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DAL
TOR
DAL
ML
55%
57-47
62%
63-39
55%
48-39
54%
44-37
ATS
61%
62-40-2
67%
68-34
55%
48-39
54%
44-37
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
60-41-1
100%
87-0
100%
81-0
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