PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
12-9 | Road
111
MIAMI
HEATMIA
10-10 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
HEAT
100%
SUNS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
26.5%
PHX By 8-14 points
17.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
113
PHOENIX
Miami
111.61
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Phoenix
110
PHOENIX
Miami
105
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
MIA @ PHX
111 - 102
Jan 13, 2026
PHX @ MIA
121 - 127
Dec 7, 2024
PHX @ MIA
111 - 121
Nov 6, 2024
MIA @ PHX
112 - 115
Jan 29, 2024
PHX @ MIA
118 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.7% more
Phoenix: 4.5
vs
Miami: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+10.5% more
Phoenix: 15.0
vs
Miami: 13.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Phoenix: 80.8%
vs
Miami: 76.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Phoenix: 49.4%
vs
Miami: 47.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
113.0
111
MIA Score
111.6
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 39.0
40.6 / 39.0
Assists
31.0 / 29.0
30.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.5
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 49.4
52.3 / 43.9
Free Throw %
76.6 / 80.8
78.3 / 92.0
Rebounding
45.8 / 43.8
41.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.1 / 8.5
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 15.0
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHX
MIA
PHX
ML
48%
46-50
57%
60-45
59%
48-34
51%
45-43
ATS
51%
49-47
58%
59-43-3
59%
48-34
51%
45-43
TTL
59%
57-39
59%
61-42-2
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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