MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
15-8 | Road
127
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
19-4 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
CELTICS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -11.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
MEM By 1-7 points
8.7%
MEM By 8-14 points
2.4%
BOS By 1-7 points
21.0%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
115.79
MEMPHIS
Boston
127.21
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Memphis
106
MEMPHIS
Boston
112
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.4
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
BOS @ MEM
117 - 112
Nov 12, 2025
MEM @ BOS
95 - 131
Oct 8, 2025
BOS @ MEM
121 - 103
Mar 31, 2025
BOS @ MEM
117 - 103
Dec 7, 2024
MEM @ BOS
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.5% more
Boston: 6.6
vs
Memphis: 5.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Boston: 36.0%
vs
Memphis: 34.3%
Turnovers (L5)
+38.3% more
Memphis: 18.1
vs
Boston: 11.1
Steals (L5)
+29.1% more
Memphis: 10.3
vs
Boston: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
115.8
127
BOS Score
127.2
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 34.3
30.0 / 45.5
Assists
26.4 / 30.2
26.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.6 / 5.2
7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 48.9
40.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
82.8 / 82.9
67.9 / 78.3
Rebounding
44.8 / 45.6
51.0 / 52.0
Steals
7.3 / 10.3
6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 18.1
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MEM
BOS
MEM
ML
57%
61-46
57%
59-44
53%
47-41
50%
41-41
ATS
59%
61-43-3
63%
65-38
53%
47-41
50%
41-41
TTL
56%
60-47
70%
71-31-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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