INDIANA
PACERSIND
9-14 | Road
132
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
10-13 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
BULLS
0%
PACERS
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.7 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHI -12.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
IND By 1-7 points
7.1%
IND By 8-14 points
1.8%
CHI By 1-7 points
19.0%
CHI By 8-14 points
27.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
111.36
INDIANA
Chicago
124.1
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Indiana
110
INDIANA
Chicago
112
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.7
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
IND @ CHI
145 - 126
Jan 28, 2026
CHI @ IND
110 - 113
Dec 5, 2025
IND @ CHI
120 - 105
Nov 29, 2025
CHI @ IND
101 - 103
Mar 10, 2025
IND @ CHI
103 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+38.5% more
Chicago: 32.3
vs
Indiana: 23.3
Rebounding (L5)
+22.8% more
Chicago: 47.1
vs
Indiana: 38.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.0%
Chicago: 53.6%
vs
Indiana: 45.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.3%
Chicago: 40.3%
vs
Indiana: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
111.4
132
CHI Score
124.1
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.3 / 33.0
42.0 / 60.0
Assists
32.3 / 23.3
33.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.8 / 6.7
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
53.6 / 45.7
47.4 / 56.5
Free Throw %
80.4 / 81.8
83.3 / 83.3
Rebounding
47.1 / 38.4
38.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.9 / 7.8
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 16.6
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHI
Advantage
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
IND
CHI
IND
ML
56%
54-42
48%
47-50
57%
46-35
54%
45-38
ATS
65%
62-33-1
59%
57-40
57%
46-35
54%
45-38
TTL
58%
56-40
54%
52-45
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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