Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Vikings ATL @ MIN

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

6-6  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Dec 8 • 1:00 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

10-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Zach Harrison
KEY GAME

Zach Harrison

#96 | Defensive End
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Zach Harrison None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
17%
📊
VIKINGS
83%
FALCONS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Minnesota)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

40.9%

Vikings Cover

59.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIN -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

ATL By 1-6 points

15.1%

ATL By 7-13 points

12.8%

MIN By 1-6 points

17.0%

MIN By 7-13 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
18.57
ATLANTA
21.79
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
ATLANTA
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vikings Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.2
B
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.4
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2025 ATL @ MIN 22 - 6
Dec 8, 2024 ATL @ MIN 21 - 42
Nov 5, 2023 MIN @ ATL 31 - 28
Oct 18, 2020 ATL @ MIN 40 - 23
Sep 8, 2019 ATL @ MIN 12 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.6% more
Minnesota: 5.7 vs Atlanta: 5.1
Turnovers (L5) +34.0% more
Atlanta: 2.0 vs Minnesota: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.7% more
Atlanta: 112.9 vs Minnesota: 100.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 18.6 21
MIN Score 21.8 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 20.5 23.0 / 25.0
Net Passing Yards 246.6 / 231.7 318.0 / 338.0
Rushing Yards 100.8 / 112.9 115.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 347.4 / 344.7 433.0 / 496.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.0 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.1 7.7 / 7.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ATL
MIN
ATL
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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