Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ 49ers CHI @ SF

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

4-8  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Dec 8 • 4:25 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

5-7  |  Home

38
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Ji'Ayir Brown
KEY GAME

Ji'Ayir Brown

#27 | Safety
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Ji'Ayir Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
41%
📊
49ERS
59%
BEARS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (San Francisco)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 49ersSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

45.4%

49ers Cover

54.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

CHI By 1-6 points

15.9%

CHI By 7-13 points

14.1%

SF By 1-6 points

16.8%

SF By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21.87
CHICAGO
23.48
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
24
CHICAGO
38
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 49ers Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
B
Sim 49ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 CHI @ SF 38 - 42
Dec 8, 2024 CHI @ SF 13 - 38
Sep 11, 2022 SF @ CHI 10 - 19
Oct 31, 2021 SF @ CHI 33 - 22
Dec 23, 2018 CHI @ SF 14 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +182.0% more
San Francisco: 2.2 vs Chicago: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.0% more
San Francisco: 121.8 vs Chicago: 101.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.3% more
San Francisco: 5.6 vs Chicago: 4.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Chicago: 218.8 vs San Francisco: 175.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 21.9 13
SF Score 23.5 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 18.2 22.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 175.5 / 218.8 321.0 / 94.0
Rushing Yards 121.8 / 101.5 131.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 297.3 / 320.3 452.0 / 162.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 4.9 7.4 / 3.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
SF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CHI
SF
CHI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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