DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
11-8 | Road
114
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
19-3 | Home
126
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
NUGGETS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
27.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
21.0%
CLE By 1-7 points
20.8%
CLE By 8-14 points
9.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
123.24
DENVER
Cleveland
119.69
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Denver
125
DENVER
Cleveland
118
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 242.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
CLE @ DEN
119 - 117
Jan 2, 2026
DEN @ CLE
108 - 113
Dec 27, 2024
CLE @ DEN
149 - 135
Dec 5, 2024
DEN @ CLE
114 - 126
Mar 31, 2024
CLE @ DEN
101 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+15.7% more
Denver: 32.0
vs
Cleveland: 27.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Denver: 52.5%
vs
Cleveland: 47.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Denver: 41.5%
vs
Cleveland: 37.4%
Rebounding (L5)
+12.6% more
Cleveland: 44.3
vs
Denver: 39.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
123.2
114
CLE Score
119.7
126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 41.5
45.8 / 25.0
Assists
27.0 / 32.0
32.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.7
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 52.5
50.0 / 47.9
Free Throw %
74.8 / 72.9
62.5 / 72.7
Rebounding
44.3 / 39.4
47.0 / 49.0
Steals
8.9 / 8.1
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 14.0
17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DEN
CLE
DEN
ML
60%
69-46
54%
57-48
56%
55-44
55%
47-39
ATS
67%
75-37-3
63%
65-38-2
56%
55-44
55%
47-39
TTL
59%
68-47
54%
56-48-1
100%
99-0
100%
86-0
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