Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Grizzlies SAC @ MEM

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

10-12  |  Road

110
FINAL
Thu, Dec 5 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

14-8  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
KINGS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.2
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.2 points (Memphis)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

20.7%

Grizzlies Cover

79.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -8.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

SAC By 1-7 points

13.5%

SAC By 8-14 points

4.7%

MEM By 1-7 points

25.2%

MEM By 8-14 points

26.3%

AI Model Projected Score
113.24
SACRAMENTO
121.4
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
110
SACRAMENTO
115
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.2
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 234.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 SAC @ MEM 123 - 114
Feb 4, 2026 MEM @ SAC 129 - 125
Nov 30, 2025 MEM @ SAC 115 - 107
Nov 20, 2025 SAC @ MEM 96 - 137
Mar 17, 2025 MEM @ SAC 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.7% more
Memphis: 11.0 vs Sacramento: 7.5
Turnovers (L5) +23.8% more
Memphis: 16.1 vs Sacramento: 13.0
Free Throw % (L5) +13.5%
Memphis: 83.7% vs Sacramento: 70.3%
Blocks (L5) +8.1% more
Sacramento: 5.7 vs Memphis: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 113.2 110
MEM Score 121.4 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 38.6 34.2 / 22.9
Assists 31.8 / 29.7 27.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.2 / 5.7 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.6 / 48.3 47.5 / 39.8
Free Throw % 83.7 / 70.3 81.3 / 85.7
Rebounding 43.8 / 41.3 49.0 / 46.0
Steals 11.0 / 7.5 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 13.0 22.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
SAC
MEM
SAC
ML
57% 59-44
55% 55-45
50% 41-41
61% 50-32
ATS
63% 65-38
54% 52-45-3
50% 41-41
61% 50-32
TTL
70% 71-31-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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