DETROIT
PISTONSDET
9-14 | Road
120
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
17-4 | Home
130
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
CELTICS
0%
PISTONS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
DET By 1-7 points
6.9%
DET By 8-14 points
1.7%
BOS By 1-7 points
18.6%
BOS By 8-14 points
26.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
109.25
DETROIT
Boston
122.22
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
102
DETROIT
Boston
114
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 19, 2026
BOS @ DET
103 - 104
Dec 15, 2025
DET @ BOS
112 - 105
Nov 26, 2025
DET @ BOS
114 - 117
Oct 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
113 - 119
Feb 26, 2025
BOS @ DET
97 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+20.1% more
Boston: 6.9
vs
Detroit: 5.8
Rebounding (L5)
+15.2% more
Boston: 48.6
vs
Detroit: 42.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.4%
Boston: 82.7%
vs
Detroit: 76.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Boston: 37.1%
vs
Detroit: 34.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
109.3
120
BOS Score
122.2
130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 34.6
39.6 / 51.3
Assists
24.2 / 24.7
30.0 / 27.0
Blocks
6.9 / 5.8
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 46.0
47.9 / 51.2
Free Throw %
82.7 / 76.4
76.0 / 77.8
Rebounding
48.6 / 42.2
43.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.1
11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 17.4
16.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
BOS
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DET
BOS
DET
ML
57%
61-46
55%
64-53
53%
47-41
49%
47-49
ATS
59%
61-43-3
53%
60-54-3
53%
47-41
49%
47-49
TTL
56%
60-47
60%
70-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
96-0
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