Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Mavericks MEM @ DAL

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

14-7  |  Road

116
FINAL
Tue, Dec 3 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

13-8  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

63.2%

Mavericks Cover

36.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

27.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

20.7%

DAL By 1-7 points

21.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

10.2%

AI Model Projected Score
125.22
MEMPHIS
121.85
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
MEMPHIS
105
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.4
D
Sim Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 247.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 DAL @ MEM 120 - 112
Feb 27, 2026 MEM @ DAL 124 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 MEM @ DAL 102 - 96
Nov 7, 2025 DAL @ MEM 104 - 118
Apr 18, 2025 DAL @ MEM 106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.2% more
Memphis: 6.4 vs Dallas: 4.1
Assists (L5) +14.8% more
Memphis: 34.2 vs Dallas: 29.1
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Memphis: 79.1% vs Dallas: 75.2%
Steals (L5) +12.4% more
Dallas: 10.1 vs Memphis: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 125.2 116
DAL Score 121.9 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.9 / 35.3 40.6 / 32.5
Assists 29.1 / 34.2 24.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.1 / 6.4 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.2 / 51.2 48.1 / 46.4
Free Throw % 75.2 / 79.1 68.2 / 92.9
Rebounding 43.0 / 46.3 49.0 / 39.0
Steals 10.1 / 9.0 8.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 14.6 25.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MEM
DAL
MEM
ML
62% 63-39
57% 59-44
54% 44-37
50% 41-41
ATS
67% 68-34
63% 65-38
54% 44-37
50% 41-41
TTL
59% 60-41-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 81-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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