HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
15-6 | Road
111
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
9-12 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
KINGS
100%
ROCKETS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.8 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -10.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
21.9%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.4%
SAC By 1-7 points
9.5%
SAC By 8-14 points
2.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
119.48
HOUSTON
Sacramento
108.66
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Houston
110
HOUSTON
Sacramento
117
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.8
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
SAC @ HOU
97 - 128
Jan 11, 2026
HOU @ SAC
98 - 111
Dec 21, 2025
HOU @ SAC
124 - 125
Dec 3, 2025
SAC @ HOU
95 - 121
Mar 1, 2025
SAC @ HOU
113 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.9% more
Houston: 8.0
vs
Sacramento: 4.5
Rebounding (L5)
+9.0% more
Houston: 49.4
vs
Sacramento: 45.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.9%
Houston: 80.3%
vs
Sacramento: 75.4%
Assists (L5)
+21.1% more
Sacramento: 28.0
vs
Houston: 23.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
119.5
111
SAC Score
108.7
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 34.1
46.7 / 35.9
Assists
28.0 / 23.1
33.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.5 / 8.0
8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 43.1
51.6 / 44.1
Free Throw %
75.4 / 80.3
60.0 / 71.4
Rebounding
45.0 / 49.4
34.0 / 53.0
Steals
7.7 / 8.2
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 13.6
10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
SAC
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
HOU
SAC
HOU
ML
55%
55-45
61%
69-44
61%
50-32
59%
51-35
ATS
54%
52-45-3
62%
70-43
61%
50-32
59%
51-35
TTL
58%
57-42-1
51%
58-55
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
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