MIAMI
HEATMIA
9-9 | Road
89
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
16-4 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
CELTICS
0%
HEAT
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -10.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
MIA By 1-7 points
9.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
2.7%
BOS By 1-7 points
21.7%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
110.43
MIAMI
Boston
121.36
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Miami
105
MIAMI
Boston
112
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.9
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ MIA
147 - 129
Feb 6, 2026
MIA @ BOS
96 - 98
Jan 15, 2026
BOS @ MIA
119 - 114
Dec 19, 2025
MIA @ BOS
116 - 129
Apr 2, 2025
MIA @ BOS
124 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+98.0% more
Boston: 5.9
vs
Miami: 3.0
Rebounding (L5)
+9.0% more
Boston: 45.9
vs
Miami: 42.1
Turnovers (L5)
+22.1% more
Miami: 13.3
vs
Boston: 10.4
Assists (L5)
+9.1% more
Miami: 26.2
vs
Boston: 23.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
110.4
89
BOS Score
121.4
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 37.2
34.5 / 22.9
Assists
23.8 / 26.2
25.0 / 24.0
Blocks
5.9 / 3.0
9.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 44.7
43.8 / 35.6
Free Throw %
81.8 / 80.9
84.6 / 82.6
Rebounding
45.9 / 42.1
54.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.3 / 9.1
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 13.3
17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIA
BOS
MIA
ML
57%
61-46
48%
46-50
53%
47-41
59%
48-34
ATS
59%
61-43-3
51%
49-47
53%
47-41
59%
48-34
TTL
56%
60-47
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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