Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Grizzlies IND @ MEM

INDIANA

PACERSIND

9-11  |  Road

121
FINAL
Sun, Dec 1 • 3:30 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

13-7  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
PACERS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (Memphis)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

33.4%

Grizzlies Cover

66.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

IND By 1-7 points

19.7%

IND By 8-14 points

8.9%

MEM By 1-7 points

27.4%

MEM By 8-14 points

22.1%

AI Model Projected Score
114.96
INDIANA
119.26
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
107
INDIANA
120
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.3
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 234.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 MEM @ IND 125 - 106
Oct 25, 2025 IND @ MEM 103 - 128
Feb 20, 2025 MEM @ IND 113 - 127
Dec 1, 2024 IND @ MEM 121 - 136
Oct 14, 2024 MEM @ IND 120 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.9% more
Memphis: 33.3 vs Indiana: 26.4
Rebounding (L5) +24.8% more
Memphis: 49.4 vs Indiana: 39.6
Blocks (L5) +21.8% more
Memphis: 6.5 vs Indiana: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +15.9% more
Memphis: 17.0 vs Indiana: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 115.0 121
MEM Score 119.3 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 37.5 34.8 / 33.3
Assists 33.3 / 26.4 36.0 / 28.0
Blocks 6.5 / 5.4 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 48.3 52.7 / 47.8
Free Throw % 78.0 / 82.1 81.5 / 80.8
Rebounding 49.4 / 39.6 40.0 / 41.0
Steals 9.0 / 9.5 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 17.0 / 14.6 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
IND
MEM
IND
ML
57% 59-44
48% 47-50
50% 41-41
54% 45-38
ATS
63% 65-38
59% 57-40
50% 41-41
54% 45-38
TTL
70% 71-31-1
54% 52-45
100% 82-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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