BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
16-3 | Road
111
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
17-3 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
CELTICS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -5.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
27.1%
BOS By 8-14 points
23.6%
CLE By 1-7 points
17.9%
CLE By 8-14 points
7.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
126.74
BOSTON
Cleveland
121.32
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Boston
98
BOSTON
Cleveland
103
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.4
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 248.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 201.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
BOS @ CLE
109 - 98
Nov 30, 2025
BOS @ CLE
117 - 115
Oct 29, 2025
CLE @ BOS
105 - 125
Oct 12, 2025
CLE @ BOS
107 - 138
Feb 28, 2025
CLE @ BOS
123 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.4% more
Boston: 5.8
vs
Cleveland: 3.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Boston: 40.2%
vs
Cleveland: 34.5%
Steals (L5)
+33.4% more
Cleveland: 9.4
vs
Boston: 7.0
Turnovers (L5)
+30.8% more
Cleveland: 13.1
vs
Boston: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
126.7
111
CLE Score
121.3
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 40.2
47.2 / 34.7
Assists
26.4 / 27.2
22.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.4 / 5.8
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 48.1
48.8 / 40.0
Free Throw %
80.4 / 75.3
80.0 / 94.7
Rebounding
44.0 / 45.9
44.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.4 / 7.0
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 10.0
18.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BOS
CLE
BOS
ML
60%
69-46
57%
61-46
56%
55-44
53%
47-41
ATS
67%
75-37-3
59%
61-43-3
56%
55-44
53%
47-41
TTL
59%
68-47
56%
60-47
100%
99-0
100%
88-0
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