MIAMI
HEATMIA
9-8 | Road
116
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
5-15 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
RAPTORS
100%
HEAT
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.3 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -6.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
24.6%
TOR By 1-7 points
16.5%
TOR By 8-14 points
6.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
112.46
MIAMI
Toronto
106.2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Toronto
109
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.3
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 9, 2026
MIA @ TOR
114 - 128
Apr 7, 2026
MIA @ TOR
95 - 121
Dec 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
112 - 91
Dec 15, 2025
TOR @ MIA
106 - 96
Feb 21, 2025
MIA @ TOR
120 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.8%
Miami: 80.3%
vs
Toronto: 67.6%
Steals (L5)
+12.1% more
Miami: 8.2
vs
Toronto: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+59.3% more
Toronto: 3.9
vs
Miami: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+26.3% more
Toronto: 16.3
vs
Miami: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
112.5
116
TOR Score
106.2
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 37.1
34.5 / 37.5
Assists
30.9 / 26.7
30.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.9 / 2.5
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 44.9
53.4 / 44.3
Free Throw %
67.6 / 80.3
75.0 / 82.1
Rebounding
48.7 / 40.7
47.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.2
4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 12.9
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIA
TOR
MIA
ML
55%
57-47
48%
46-50
55%
48-39
59%
48-34
ATS
61%
62-40-2
51%
49-47
55%
48-39
59%
48-34
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
57-39
100%
87-0
100%
82-0
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