DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
12-8 | Road
137
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
8-12 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
MAVERICKS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.3
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.3 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -6.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
26.7%
DAL By 8-14 points
24.6%
POR By 1-7 points
16.4%
POR By 8-14 points
6.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
117.67
DALLAS
Portland
111.35
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Dallas
112
DALLAS
Portland
107
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.3
D
Sim
Mavericks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 27, 2026
DAL @ POR
100 - 93
Dec 29, 2025
DAL @ POR
122 - 125
Nov 16, 2025
POR @ DAL
133 - 138
Jan 9, 2025
POR @ DAL
111 - 117
Dec 28, 2024
DAL @ POR
122 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+11.8% more
Dallas: 48.0
vs
Portland: 42.3
Assists (L5)
+8.9% more
Dallas: 27.2
vs
Portland: 24.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
Dallas: 40.9%
vs
Portland: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Dallas: 49.2%
vs
Portland: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
117.7
137
POR Score
111.4
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 40.9
58.1 / 50.0
Assists
24.8 / 27.2
29.0 / 33.0
Blocks
5.9 / 6.1
0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 49.2
58.3 / 55.2
Free Throw %
74.1 / 73.2
83.3 / 79.3
Rebounding
42.3 / 48.0
39.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.6 / 8.7
7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 14.7
21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
DAL
POR
DAL
ML
53%
56-49
62%
63-39
55%
49-40
54%
44-37
ATS
62%
65-39-1
67%
68-34
55%
49-40
54%
44-37
TTL
56%
58-46-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
89-0
100%
81-0
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