ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
9-11 | Road
107
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
6-13 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
HORNETS
100%
HAWKS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.5%
ATL By 8-14 points
25.0%
CHA By 1-7 points
15.9%
CHA By 8-14 points
6.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
112.35
ATLANTA
Charlotte
105.72
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
106
ATLANTA
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.6
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
ATL @ CHA
107 - 110
Feb 7, 2026
CHA @ ATL
126 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
126 - 133
Nov 23, 2025
CHA @ ATL
110 - 113
Mar 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
134 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+33.0% more
Atlanta: 33.5
vs
Charlotte: 22.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.6%
Atlanta: 83.0%
vs
Charlotte: 68.4%
Rebounding (L5)
+10.4% more
Atlanta: 49.0
vs
Charlotte: 43.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
Atlanta: 47.7%
vs
Charlotte: 40.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
112.4
107
CHA Score
105.7
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 38.1
37.5 / 30.3
Assists
22.4 / 33.5
23.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.4 / 5.5
6.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
40.8 / 47.7
37.2 / 48.7
Free Throw %
68.4 / 83.0
84.2 / 77.8
Rebounding
43.8 / 49.0
45.0 / 49.0
Steals
8.2 / 8.8
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.2 / 16.9
15.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
ATL
CHA
ATL
ML
61%
60-39
50%
52-52
48%
40-44
55%
48-40
ATS
60%
59-40
53%
55-48-1
48%
40-44
55%
48-40
TTL
58%
57-42
53%
55-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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