CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
12-8-0 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
9-12-0 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Brayden Pachal
#94 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Owen Pickering
#38 | D| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Pachal | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Owen Pickering | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
PENGUINS
0%
FLAMES
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
CGY By 1 goal
17.1%
CGY By 2-3 goals
17.7%
PIT By 1 goal
17.8%
PIT By 2-3 goals
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Calgary
2.02
CALGARY
Pittsburgh
2.11
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
PIT @ CGY
4 - 1
Jan 10, 2026
CGY @ PIT
2 - 1
Nov 30, 2024
CGY @ PIT
2 - 6
Oct 22, 2024
PIT @ CGY
3 - 4
Mar 2, 2024
PIT @ CGY
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+10.3% more
Pittsburgh: 16.1
vs
Calgary: 14.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.3%
Pittsburgh: 53.7%
vs
Calgary: 44.4%
Power Play % (L5)
+28.7%
Calgary: 45.6%
vs
Pittsburgh: 16.9%
Takeaways (L5)
+12.5% more
Calgary: 5.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CGY Score
2.0
2
PIT Score
2.1
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.1 / 14.6
23.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
53.7 / 44.4
53.8 / 46.2
Hits
20.0 / 18.7
12.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
16.9 / 45.6
60.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.3 / 29.6
43.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 5.8
4.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CGY
PIT
CGY
ML
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
Contextual Game News
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