Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Patriots IND @ NE

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

5-7  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sun, Dec 1 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

3-9  |  Home

24
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
68%
📊
PATRIOTS
32%
COLTS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New England)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

30.8%

Patriots Cover

69.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

IND By 1-6 points

12.8%

IND By 7-13 points

9.6%

NE By 1-6 points

16.4%

NE By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
14.01
INDIANAPOLIS
21.03
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
24
INDIANAPOLIS
31
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Loss
32% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 1, 2024 IND @ NE 25 - 24
Nov 12, 2023 IND @ NE 10 - 6
Nov 6, 2022 IND @ NE 3 - 26
Dec 18, 2021 NE @ IND 17 - 27
Oct 4, 2018 IND @ NE 24 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +35.9% more
New England: 1.7 vs Indianapolis: 1.3
First Downs (L5) +17.5% more
New England: 18.1 vs Indianapolis: 15.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.1% more
Indianapolis: 5.3 vs New England: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 14.0 25
NE Score 21.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 15.4 23.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 197.2 / 197.0 222.0 / 109.0
Rushing Yards 107.1 / 104.1 200.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.55 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 304.2 / 301.0 422.0 / 253.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.3 6.5 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
IND
NE
IND
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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