Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Jaguars HOU @ JAX

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

7-5  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Dec 1 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

2-9  |  Home

20
Key Game
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
86%
📊
JAGUARS
14%
TEXANS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

50.8%

Jaguars Cover

49.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

15.6%

JAX By 1-6 points

16.4%

JAX By 7-13 points

15.2%

AI Model Projected Score
21.85
HOUSTON
21.56
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
20
HOUSTON
24
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Win
86% Win Prob
A
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 JAX @ HOU 29 - 36
Sep 21, 2025 HOU @ JAX 10 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 HOU @ JAX 23 - 20
Sep 29, 2024 JAX @ HOU 20 - 24
Nov 26, 2023 JAX @ HOU 24 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.2% more
Houston: 94.9 vs Jacksonville: 69.1
Total Yards (L5) +26.2% more
Houston: 307.5 vs Jacksonville: 227.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +25.7% more
Houston: 212.7 vs Jacksonville: 157.9
First Downs (L5) +20.5% more
Houston: 16.9 vs Jacksonville: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 21.9 23
JAX Score 21.6 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.4 / 16.9 19.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 157.9 / 212.7 276.0 / 218.0
Rushing Yards 69.1 / 94.9 97.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 227.0 / 307.5 373.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.4 / 5.0 5.6 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
HOU
JAX
HOU
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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