Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Falcons LAC @ ATL

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

7-4  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Dec 1 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

6-5  |  Home

13
Key Game
Cameron Dicker
KEY GAME

Cameron Dicker

#11 | Place kicker
@
Zach Harrison
KEY GAME

Zach Harrison

#96 | Defensive End
Player
Cameron Dicker None-None
Zach Harrison None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
59%
📊
FALCONS
41%
CHARGERS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Los Angeles)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

62.5%

Falcons Cover

37.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LAC -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAC)

LAC By 1-6 points

16.9%

LAC By 7-13 points

18.3%

ATL By 1-6 points

14.5%

ATL By 7-13 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
25.75
LOS ANGELES
21.28
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
31
LOS ANGELES
28
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chargers Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chargers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim Chargers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 1, 2024 LAC @ ATL 17 - 13
Nov 6, 2022 LAC @ ATL 20 - 17
Dec 13, 2020 ATL @ LAC 17 - 20
Oct 23, 2016 LAC @ ATL 33 - 30
Sep 23, 2012 ATL @ LAC 27 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.0% more
Atlanta: 1.1 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 25.8 17
ATL Score 21.3 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 20.0 24.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards 230.6 / 225.4 234.0 / 131.0
Rushing Yards 111.4 / 113.4 116.0 / 56.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.21 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 342.0 / 338.7 350.0 / 187.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.3 4.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.6 4.5 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
LAC
ATL
LAC
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
0% 0-3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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