Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Panthers TB @ CAR

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

5-6  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Dec 1 • 4:05 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

3-8  |  Home

23
Key Game
A'Shawn Robinson
KEY GAME

A'Shawn Robinson

#91 | Defensive Tackle
@
Mike Jackson
KEY GAME

Mike Jackson

#2 | Cornerback
Player
A'Shawn Robinson None-None
Mike Jackson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
69%
📊
PANTHERS
31%
BUCCANEERS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.1
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.1 points (Tampa Bay)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

74.2%

Panthers Cover

25.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TB -9.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-6 points

15.7%

TB By 7-13 points

19.7%

CAR By 1-6 points

11.4%

CAR By 7-13 points

7.9%

AI Model Projected Score
27.57
TAMPA BAY
18.46
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
27
TAMPA BAY
20
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.1
D
Sim Buccaneers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 CAR @ TB 14 - 16
Dec 21, 2025 TB @ CAR 20 - 23
Dec 29, 2024 CAR @ TB 14 - 48
Dec 1, 2024 TB @ CAR 26 - 23
Jan 7, 2024 TB @ CAR 9 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Tampa Bay: 238.6 vs Carolina: 186.5
First Downs (L5) +21.8% more
Tampa Bay: 22.0 vs Carolina: 17.2
Total Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Tampa Bay: 370.3 vs Carolina: 297.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.0% more
Tampa Bay: 131.7 vs Carolina: 110.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 27.6 26
CAR Score 18.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 22.0 19.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards 186.5 / 238.6 289.0 / 209.0
Rushing Yards 110.7 / 131.7 78.0 / 236.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 297.1 / 370.3 367.0 / 445.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.9 5.4 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
TB
CAR
TB
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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