CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
17-2 | Road
101
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
8-11 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
HAWKS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
CLE By 1-7 points
20.9%
CLE By 8-14 points
10.0%
ATL By 1-7 points
27.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
20.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
118.82
CLEVELAND
Atlanta
122.29
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Cleveland
103
CLEVELAND
Atlanta
117
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 241.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
CLE @ ATL
102 - 124
Apr 8, 2026
ATL @ CLE
116 - 122
Nov 28, 2025
CLE @ ATL
123 - 130
Nov 2, 2025
ATL @ CLE
109 - 117
Jan 30, 2025
ATL @ CLE
115 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+15.9% more
Atlanta: 33.7
vs
Cleveland: 29.1
Blocks (L5)
+13.5% more
Atlanta: 5.7
vs
Cleveland: 5.0
Turnovers (L5)
+13.0% more
Atlanta: 14.9
vs
Cleveland: 13.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Atlanta: 82.9%
vs
Cleveland: 79.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
118.8
101
ATL Score
122.3
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 37.3
41.2 / 28.9
Assists
33.7 / 29.1
33.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.7 / 5.0
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 49.7
51.8 / 40.9
Free Throw %
82.9 / 79.3
83.3 / 82.4
Rebounding
46.9 / 46.0
53.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.5
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 13.2
21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CLE
ATL
CLE
ML
50%
52-52
60%
69-46
55%
48-40
56%
55-44
ATS
53%
55-48-1
67%
75-37-3
55%
48-40
56%
55-44
TTL
53%
55-48-1
59%
68-47
100%
88-0
100%
99-0
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