Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Heat TOR @ MIA

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

5-14  |  Road

111
FINAL
Fri, Nov 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

8-8  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
HEAT
0%
RAPTORS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.5 points (Miami)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

6.1%

Heat Cover

93.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -15.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

TOR By 1-7 points

4.4%

TOR By 8-14 points

0.9%

MIA By 1-7 points

14.5%

MIA By 8-14 points

24.8%

AI Model Projected Score
102.02
TORONTO
117.51
MIAMI
Simulated Score
107
TORONTO
114
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Heat Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Heat (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.5
D
Sim Heat (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 MIA @ TOR 114 - 128
Apr 7, 2026 MIA @ TOR 95 - 121
Dec 23, 2025 TOR @ MIA 112 - 91
Dec 15, 2025 TOR @ MIA 106 - 96
Feb 21, 2025 MIA @ TOR 120 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +19.1%
Miami: 79.3% vs Toronto: 60.1%
Assists (L5) +17.8% more
Toronto: 29.3 vs Miami: 24.1
Steals (L5) +17.3% more
Toronto: 8.8 vs Miami: 7.3
Blocks (L5) +15.8% more
Toronto: 4.4 vs Miami: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 102.0 111
MIA Score 117.5 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 35.0 38.9 / 37.9
Assists 24.1 / 29.3 32.0 / 34.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.4 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 45.9 45.7 / 53.8
Free Throw % 79.3 / 60.1 82.4 / 82.4
Rebounding 44.6 / 50.1 33.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.3 / 8.8 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 15.0 10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TOR
MIA
TOR
ML
48% 46-50
55% 57-47
59% 48-34
55% 48-39
ATS
51% 49-47
61% 62-40-2
59% 48-34
55% 48-39
TTL
59% 57-39
60% 62-42
100% 82-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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