DETROIT
PISTONSDET
8-12 | Road
130
INDIANA
PACERSIND
9-10 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
PACERS
0%
PISTONS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.2
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -7.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
DET By 1-7 points
15.1%
DET By 8-14 points
5.6%
IND By 1-7 points
26.1%
IND By 8-14 points
25.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
108.99
DETROIT
Indiana
116.14
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Detroit
99
DETROIT
Indiana
105
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.2
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 204.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DET @ IND
133 - 121
Jan 17, 2026
IND @ DET
78 - 121
Nov 24, 2025
DET @ IND
122 - 117
Nov 17, 2025
IND @ DET
112 - 127
Jan 29, 2025
DET @ IND
119 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+62.7% more
Indiana: 9.7
vs
Detroit: 6.0
Assists (L5)
+14.3% more
Indiana: 28.2
vs
Detroit: 24.6
Blocks (L5)
+13.7% more
Indiana: 6.1
vs
Detroit: 5.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Indiana: 76.9%
vs
Detroit: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
109.0
130
IND Score
116.1
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 35.0
36.4 / 47.4
Assists
28.2 / 24.6
23.0 / 35.0
Blocks
6.1 / 5.3
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 45.6
48.2 / 57.8
Free Throw %
76.9 / 73.4
92.3 / 80.0
Rebounding
43.4 / 42.9
32.0 / 44.0
Steals
9.7 / 6.0
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 16.6
16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DET
IND
DET
ML
48%
47-50
55%
64-53
54%
45-38
49%
47-49
ATS
59%
57-40
53%
60-54-3
54%
45-38
49%
47-49
TTL
54%
52-45
60%
70-46-1
100%
83-0
100%
96-0
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