SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
9-10 | Road
106
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
7-12 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
KINGS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SAC By 1-7 points
25.9%
SAC By 8-14 points
16.2%
POR By 1-7 points
24.8%
POR By 8-14 points
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
107.79
SACRAMENTO
Portland
107.22
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Sacramento
122
SACRAMENTO
Portland
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim
Kings (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
SAC @ POR
110 - 122
Jan 18, 2026
POR @ SAC
117 - 110
Dec 20, 2025
POR @ SAC
98 - 93
Dec 18, 2025
SAC @ POR
133 - 134
Oct 10, 2025
SAC @ POR
123 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Sacramento: 47.6%
vs
Portland: 41.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.7%
Sacramento: 72.8%
vs
Portland: 71.1%
Blocks (L5)
+63.3% more
Portland: 7.3
vs
Sacramento: 4.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.4%
Portland: 35.0%
vs
Sacramento: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
107.8
106
POR Score
107.2
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 31.6
29.7 / 35.7
Assists
23.6 / 24.5
27.0 / 29.0
Blocks
7.3 / 4.5
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 47.6
51.1 / 44.9
Free Throw %
71.1 / 72.8
80.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
43.5 / 42.4
40.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.8
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 15.1
12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
SAC
POR
SAC
ML
53%
56-49
55%
55-45
55%
49-40
61%
50-32
ATS
62%
65-39-1
54%
52-45-3
55%
49-40
61%
50-32
TTL
56%
58-46-1
58%
57-42-1
100%
89-0
100%
82-0
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