NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
8-10-0 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
15-6-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Semyon Varlamov
#40 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov | None-None | 4.89 | 0.808 | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.92 | 0.833 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.89
GAA
Ldr 3.92
0.808
Save %
Ldr 0.833
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
0%
CAPITALS
100%
ISLANDERS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYI -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
NYI By 1 goal
18.1%
NYI By 2-3 goals
20.4%
WSH By 1 goal
16.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.04
NEW YORK
Washington
2.88
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Islanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Islanders (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 2, 2026
NYI @ WSH
1 - 4
Nov 30, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 1
Oct 31, 2025
NYI @ WSH
3 - 1
Oct 11, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 2
Apr 15, 2025
WSH @ NYI
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+25.3% more
New York: 27.5
vs
Washington: 20.5
Takeaways (L5)
+76.1% more
Washington: 4.9
vs
New York: 2.8
Power Play % (L5)
+25.3%
Washington: 33.6%
vs
New York: 8.3%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.0% more
Washington: 29.1
vs
New York: 26.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
3.0
4
WSH Score
2.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.2 / 15.2
13.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
56.7 / 58.2
42.4 / 57.6
Hits
20.5 / 27.5
21.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
33.6 / 8.3
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.1 / 26.7
26.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 2.8
9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYI
WSH
NYI
ML
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
2-0-1
33%
1-2
100%
2-0-1
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…