PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
8-12-0 | Road
2
BOSTON
BRUINSBOS
11-10-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Justin Brazeau
#16 | Right Wing@
GOALTENDER
Jeremy Swayman
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Brazeau | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Jeremy Swayman | None-None | 2.07 | 0.944 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.07
--
Save %
0.944
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
BRUINS
0%
PENGUINS
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BOS -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
PIT By 1 goal
11.4%
PIT By 2-3 goals
8.5%
BOS By 1 goal
19.7%
BOS By 2-3 goals
30.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
1.49
PITTSBURGH
Boston
2.61
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bruins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.1
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
BOS @ PIT
4 - 5
Mar 3, 2026
PIT @ BOS
1 - 2
Jan 11, 2026
PIT @ BOS
0 - 1
Apr 13, 2025
BOS @ PIT
4 - 1
Mar 1, 2025
BOS @ PIT
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+24.2% more
Boston: 28.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 22.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.2% more
Boston: 26.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 24.5
Takeaways (L5)
+26.2% more
Pittsburgh: 5.6
vs
Boston: 4.1
Blocked Shots (L5)
+20.3% more
Pittsburgh: 16.7
vs
Boston: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
1.5
2
BOS Score
2.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.3 / 16.7
12.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
53.3 / 54.7
48.2 / 51.8
Hits
28.0 / 22.6
25.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
1007.0 / 2534.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.7 / 24.5
31.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 5.6
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PIT
BOS
PIT
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
ATS
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
TTL
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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