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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

7-11  |  Road

114
FINAL
Wed, Nov 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

8-10  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Indiana)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

43.4%

Pacers Cover

56.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

POR By 1-7 points

23.5%

POR By 8-14 points

12.7%

IND By 1-7 points

26.7%

IND By 8-14 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
106.72
PORTLAND
108.37
INDIANA
Simulated Score
115
PORTLAND
119
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 215.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 POR @ IND 127 - 119
Mar 8, 2026 IND @ POR 111 - 131
Feb 4, 2025 IND @ POR 89 - 112
Nov 27, 2024 POR @ IND 114 - 121
Jan 19, 2024 IND @ POR 115 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +44.1% more
Indiana: 28.7 vs Portland: 19.9
Field Goal % (L5) +10.6%
Indiana: 48.0% vs Portland: 37.4%
Steals (L5) +8.1% more
Indiana: 9.5 vs Portland: 8.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Indiana: 36.8% vs Portland: 29.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 106.7 114
IND Score 108.4 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 29.6 40.6 / 45.7
Assists 28.7 / 19.9 27.0 / 31.0
Blocks 4.1 / 8.5 10.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 37.4 48.9 / 50.6
Free Throw % 75.4 / 77.3 80.0 / 58.8
Rebounding 41.5 / 46.2 47.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.5 / 8.8 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 17.0 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
POR
IND
POR
ML
48% 47-50
53% 56-49
54% 45-38
55% 49-40
ATS
59% 57-40
62% 65-39-1
54% 45-38
55% 49-40
TTL
54% 52-45
56% 58-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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