MIAMI
HEATMIA
7-8 | Road
98
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
6-11 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
HORNETS
100%
HEAT
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
19.9%
CHA By 1-7 points
21.8%
CHA By 8-14 points
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
109.42
MIAMI
Charlotte
106.55
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Charlotte
109
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.9
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Oct 28, 2025
CHA @ MIA
117 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+19.2% more
Miami: 25.6
vs
Charlotte: 20.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Miami: 44.2%
vs
Charlotte: 42.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+75.9% more
Charlotte: 18.6
vs
Miami: 10.6
Blocks (L5)
+73.3% more
Charlotte: 5.3
vs
Miami: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
109.4
98
CHA Score
106.6
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 35.3
33.3 / 37.8
Assists
20.7 / 25.6
22.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.0
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 44.2
37.8 / 45.2
Free Throw %
80.3 / 78.0
37.5 / 81.8
Rebounding
47.9 / 44.8
43.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.9
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
18.6 / 10.6
13.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MIA
CHA
MIA
ML
61%
60-39
48%
46-50
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
ATS
60%
59-40
51%
49-47
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
57-39
100%
84-0
100%
82-0
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