DETROIT
PISTONSDET
8-11 | Road
111
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
11-7 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
PISTONS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.9
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.9 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -8.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
DET By 1-7 points
12.3%
DET By 8-14 points
4.1%
MEM By 1-7 points
24.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
111.6
DETROIT
Memphis
120.48
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Detroit
112
DETROIT
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.9
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
MEM @ DET
110 - 126
Nov 3, 2025
DET @ MEM
114 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
DET @ MEM
128 - 112
Apr 5, 2025
MEM @ DET
109 - 103
Nov 27, 2024
DET @ MEM
111 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+49.6% more
Memphis: 9.0
vs
Detroit: 6.0
Assists (L5)
+29.9% more
Memphis: 32.4
vs
Detroit: 24.9
Rebounding (L5)
+19.7% more
Memphis: 51.8
vs
Detroit: 43.3
Turnovers (L5)
+18.9% more
Memphis: 17.6
vs
Detroit: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
111.6
111
MEM Score
120.5
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 35.4
37.0 / 34.2
Assists
32.4 / 24.9
31.0 / 24.0
Blocks
9.0 / 6.0
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 44.8
54.8 / 47.1
Free Throw %
76.1 / 74.1
75.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
51.8 / 43.3
42.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.9
13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
17.6 / 14.8
17.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DET
MEM
DET
ML
57%
59-44
55%
64-53
50%
41-41
49%
47-49
ATS
63%
65-38
53%
60-54-3
50%
41-41
49%
47-49
TTL
70%
71-31-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
96-0
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