Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Suns LAL @ PHX

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

10-6  |  Road

100
FINAL
Tue, Nov 26 • 10:00 PM ET
Footprint Center
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

9-7  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
LAKERS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

52.8%

Suns Cover

47.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

26.0%

LAL By 8-14 points

16.4%

PHX By 1-7 points

24.6%

PHX By 8-14 points

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
112.61
LOS ANGELES
111.91
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
116
LOS ANGELES
112
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim Lakers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 PHX @ LAL 73 - 101
Feb 26, 2026 LAL @ PHX 110 - 113
Dec 23, 2025 LAL @ PHX 108 - 132
Dec 14, 2025 LAL @ PHX 116 - 114
Dec 1, 2025 PHX @ LAL 125 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.6% more
Los Angeles: 4.3 vs Phoenix: 2.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Los Angeles: 39.3% vs Phoenix: 35.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Los Angeles: 48.3% vs Phoenix: 45.3%
Rebounding (L5) +13.7% more
Phoenix: 40.8 vs Los Angeles: 35.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 112.6 100
PHX Score 111.9 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 39.3 40.5 / 23.5
Assists 26.4 / 26.0 31.0 / 25.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.3 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 48.3 51.5 / 43.5
Free Throw % 73.7 / 74.5 80.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 40.8 / 35.9 46.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.8 / 8.4 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 12.9 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
LAL
PHX
LAL
ML
57% 60-45
61% 68-43
51% 45-43
54% 49-42
ATS
58% 59-43-3
61% 67-43-1
51% 45-43
54% 49-42
TTL
59% 61-42-2
61% 66-43-2
100% 88-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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