TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
4-13 | Road
100
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
7-11 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
PISTONS
0%
RAPTORS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
TOR By 1-7 points
18.8%
TOR By 8-14 points
8.2%
DET By 1-7 points
27.3%
DET By 8-14 points
22.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
105.79
TORONTO
Detroit
110.64
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Toronto
115
TORONTO
Detroit
108
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.8
D
Sim
Raptors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 216.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
TOR @ DET
116 - 127
Mar 15, 2026
DET @ TOR
108 - 119
Feb 11, 2026
DET @ TOR
113 - 95
Apr 4, 2025
DET @ TOR
117 - 105
Jan 11, 2025
TOR @ DET
114 - 123
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+25.7% more
Detroit: 5.5
vs
Toronto: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Detroit: 75.7%
vs
Toronto: 70.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Detroit: 36.9%
vs
Toronto: 34.2%
Steals (L5)
+13.8% more
Toronto: 8.0
vs
Detroit: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
105.8
100
DET Score
110.6
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 34.2
32.4 / 28.6
Assists
23.9 / 24.4
27.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.4
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 46.5
44.7 / 39.4
Free Throw %
75.7 / 70.4
71.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
46.0 / 48.7
38.0 / 50.0
Steals
6.9 / 8.0
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 16.7
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
55%
64-53
55%
57-47
49%
47-49
55%
48-39
ATS
53%
60-54-3
61%
62-40-2
49%
47-49
55%
48-39
TTL
60%
70-46-1
60%
62-42
100%
96-0
100%
87-0
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