Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Hawks DAL @ ATL

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

9-8  |  Road

129
FINAL
Mon, Nov 25 • 7:30 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

7-10  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
HAWKS
100%
MAVERICKS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.2 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

73.2%

Hawks Cover

26.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -6.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

26.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

24.5%

ATL By 1-7 points

16.6%

ATL By 8-14 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
118.25
DALLAS
112.06
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
117
DALLAS
113
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.2
D
Sim Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 ATL @ DAL 135 - 120
Mar 10, 2026 DAL @ ATL 112 - 124
Apr 2, 2025 ATL @ DAL 118 - 120
Nov 25, 2024 DAL @ ATL 129 - 119
Apr 4, 2024 ATL @ DAL 95 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.3% more
Dallas: 6.8 vs Atlanta: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Dallas: 79.2% vs Atlanta: 73.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Dallas: 47.4% vs Atlanta: 43.5%
Steals (L5) +19.8% more
Atlanta: 9.9 vs Dallas: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 118.3 129
ATL Score 112.1 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 33.2 29.0 / 45.7
Assists 30.6 / 25.7 32.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.4 / 6.8 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 47.4 47.5 / 50.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 79.2 87.5 / 86.4
Rebounding 47.8 / 50.3 39.0 / 51.0
Steals 9.9 / 8.3 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 13.9 14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
ATL Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DAL
ATL
DAL
ML
50% 52-52
62% 63-39
55% 48-40
54% 44-37
ATS
53% 55-48-1
67% 68-34
55% 48-40
54% 44-37
TTL
53% 55-48-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 88-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 1 hour, 8 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 1 hour, 24 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 7 hours ago
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
si 7 hours, 4 minutes ago
Hawks Look to Bounce Back Against Spurs in Preseason Clash
si 1 day, 1 hour ago