PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
7-10 | Road
98
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
10-7 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.6 points (Portland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
POR By 1-7 points
27.3%
POR By 8-14 points
22.5%
MEM By 1-7 points
19.1%
MEM By 8-14 points
8.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
114.76
PORTLAND
Memphis
110.12
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Portland
108
PORTLAND
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.6
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
POR @ MEM
122 - 114
Feb 7, 2026
MEM @ POR
115 - 122
Feb 6, 2026
MEM @ POR
115 - 135
Dec 7, 2025
POR @ MEM
96 - 119
Mar 19, 2025
MEM @ POR
99 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+24.4% more
Portland: 9.2
vs
Memphis: 6.9
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
Portland: 8.2
vs
Memphis: 7.0
Turnovers (L5)
+14.9% more
Portland: 19.9
vs
Memphis: 17.0
Assists (L5)
+64.4% more
Memphis: 31.1
vs
Portland: 18.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
114.8
98
MEM Score
110.1
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.6 / 35.7
42.9 / 17.4
Assists
31.1 / 18.9
35.0 / 22.0
Blocks
6.9 / 9.2
13.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 39.4
49.4 / 33.3
Free Throw %
77.4 / 76.7
73.5 / 78.6
Rebounding
47.8 / 47.4
60.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.2
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.0 / 19.9
19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
POR
MEM
POR
ML
57%
59-44
53%
56-49
50%
41-41
55%
49-40
ATS
63%
65-38
62%
65-39-1
50%
41-41
55%
49-40
TTL
70%
71-31-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
89-0
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