WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
13-6-0 | Road
4
FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
12-8-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.00 | 0.952 | -- |
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00
GAA
--
0.952
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
CAPITALS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around FLA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
WSH By 1 goal
15.0%
WSH By 2-3 goals
13.7%
FLA By 1 goal
19.1%
FLA By 2-3 goals
24.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.73
WASHINGTON
Florida
4.22
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Florida
2
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
FLA @ WSH
5 - 2
Dec 29, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 5
Nov 13, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 6
Mar 22, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Feb 4, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+71.3% more
Florida: 28.6
vs
Washington: 16.7
Takeaways (L5)
+19.4% more
Florida: 5.6
vs
Washington: 4.7
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.1% more
Florida: 30.1
vs
Washington: 25.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.9%
Florida: 54.7%
vs
Washington: 50.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.7
4
FLA Score
4.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.9 / 17.6
17.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
54.7 / 50.8
42.1 / 57.9
Hits
28.6 / 16.7
30.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
19.2 / 38.0
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
30.1 / 25.9
21.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
5.6 / 4.7
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
WSH
FLA
WSH
ML
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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