CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
12-6-0 | Road
3
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
8-11-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jake Sanderson
#85 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 4.21 | 0.867 | -- |
| Jake Sanderson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.21
GAA
--
0.867
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
SENATORS
0%
FLAMES
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
CGY By 1 goal
16.7%
CGY By 2-3 goals
16.9%
OTT By 1 goal
18.1%
OTT By 2-3 goals
20.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Calgary
2.17
CALGARY
Ottawa
2.34
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Calgary
3
CALGARY
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Flames (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
OTT @ CGY
4 - 1
Oct 30, 2025
CGY @ OTT
3 - 4
Dec 19, 2024
OTT @ CGY
3 - 2
Nov 25, 2024
CGY @ OTT
3 - 4
Jan 9, 2024
OTT @ CGY
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+103.3% more
Ottawa: 33.4
vs
Calgary: 16.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+17.4%
Ottawa: 57.8%
vs
Calgary: 40.5%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+30.8% more
Calgary: 16.1
vs
Ottawa: 11.1
Power Play % (L5)
+19.7%
Calgary: 53.7%
vs
Ottawa: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CGY Score
2.2
3
OTT Score
2.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.1 / 16.1
20.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
57.8 / 40.5
56.5 / 43.5
Hits
33.4 / 16.4
27.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
34.0 / 53.7
22.2 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
32.3 / 34.9
30.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 5.4
10.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
CGY
OTT
CGY
ML
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
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