TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
4-12 | Road
108
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
16-1 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
RAPTORS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.3
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.3 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -16.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TOR By 1-7 points
3.8%
TOR By 8-14 points
0.8%
CLE By 1-7 points
13.3%
CLE By 8-14 points
24.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
110.22
TORONTO
Cleveland
126.49
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Toronto
106
TORONTO
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.3
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 236.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
102 - 114
May 1, 2026
CLE @ TOR
110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026
TOR @ CLE
120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026
CLE @ TOR
104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.6% more
Cleveland: 5.6
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.4%
Cleveland: 86.6%
vs
Toronto: 73.2%
Assists (L5)
+12.2% more
Cleveland: 28.8
vs
Toronto: 25.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.1%
Cleveland: 41.0%
vs
Toronto: 35.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
110.2
108
CLE Score
126.5
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.0 / 35.9
39.0 / 30.8
Assists
28.8 / 25.6
27.0 / 22.0
Blocks
5.6 / 4.0
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
52.3 / 49.6
49.5 / 40.2
Free Throw %
86.6 / 73.2
71.4 / 64.7
Rebounding
45.9 / 45.6
49.0 / 55.0
Steals
7.7 / 7.5
11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 17.0
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
60%
69-46
55%
57-47
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
ATS
67%
75-37-3
61%
62-40-2
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
TTL
59%
68-47
60%
62-42
100%
99-0
100%
87-0
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