DETROIT
PISTONSDET
7-10 | Road
100
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
10-7 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
MAGIC
0%
PISTONS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.3
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.3 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -9.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
DET By 1-7 points
11.7%
DET By 8-14 points
3.8%
ORL By 1-7 points
23.9%
ORL By 8-14 points
27.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
105.94
DETROIT
Orlando
115.22
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Detroit
105
DETROIT
Orlando
111
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.3
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
ORL @ DET
94 - 116
May 1, 2026
DET @ ORL
93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026
ORL @ DET
109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026
DET @ ORL
88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026
DET @ ORL
105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+49.8% more
Orlando: 6.3
vs
Detroit: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+26.9% more
Orlando: 8.7
vs
Detroit: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.0%
Orlando: 82.9%
vs
Detroit: 74.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Orlando: 46.2%
vs
Detroit: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
105.9
100
ORL Score
115.2
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 35.7
30.8 / 39.4
Assists
25.6 / 27.9
25.0 / 16.0
Blocks
6.3 / 4.2
9.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 43.9
46.0 / 46.7
Free Throw %
82.9 / 74.9
86.4 / 77.3
Rebounding
40.1 / 51.9
44.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.7 / 6.8
13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 14.4
15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
DET
ORL
DET
ML
61%
65-42
55%
64-53
56%
51-40
49%
47-49
ATS
64%
68-38-1
53%
60-54-3
56%
51-40
49%
47-49
TTL
57%
61-46
60%
70-46-1
100%
91-0
100%
96-0
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