PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
6-10 | Road
104
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
12-5 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
POR By 1-7 points
8.1%
POR By 8-14 points
2.2%
HOU By 1-7 points
20.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
106.43
PORTLAND
Houston
118.39
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Portland
115
PORTLAND
Houston
104
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
POR @ HOU
99 - 106
Jan 9, 2026
HOU @ POR
105 - 111
Jan 7, 2026
HOU @ POR
102 - 103
Nov 14, 2025
POR @ HOU
116 - 140
Jan 18, 2025
HOU @ POR
125 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.9% more
Houston: 25.6
vs
Portland: 20.4
Steals (L5)
+24.7% more
Houston: 12.3
vs
Portland: 9.8
Rebounding (L5)
+17.1% more
Houston: 52.2
vs
Portland: 44.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
Houston: 45.5%
vs
Portland: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
106.4
104
HOU Score
118.4
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 33.1
25.0 / 40.9
Assists
25.6 / 20.4
17.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.1 / 7.8
5.0 / 12.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 40.2
35.6 / 37.8
Free Throw %
73.5 / 75.8
78.8 / 78.3
Rebounding
52.2 / 44.5
43.0 / 53.0
Steals
12.3 / 9.8
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 20.9
10.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
POR
HOU
POR
ML
61%
69-44
53%
56-49
59%
51-35
55%
49-40
ATS
62%
70-43
62%
65-39-1
59%
51-35
55%
49-40
TTL
51%
58-55
56%
58-46-1
100%
86-0
100%
89-0
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