CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
6-9 | Road
119
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
7-9 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
BUCKS
0%
HORNETS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
CHA By 1-7 points
13.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
4.4%
MIL By 1-7 points
24.9%
MIL By 8-14 points
26.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
105.49
CHARLOTTE
Milwaukee
113.96
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Charlotte
113
CHARLOTTE
Milwaukee
119
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 2, 2026
CHA @ MIL
121 - 122
Dec 29, 2025
MIL @ CHA
123 - 113
Nov 14, 2025
CHA @ MIL
134 - 147
Nov 12, 2025
MIL @ CHA
100 - 111
Feb 5, 2025
MIL @ CHA
112 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.5% more
Milwaukee: 28.5
vs
Charlotte: 25.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
Milwaukee: 50.9%
vs
Charlotte: 44.6%
Turnovers (L5)
+11.9% more
Charlotte: 16.6
vs
Milwaukee: 14.6
Blocks (L5)
+9.4% more
Charlotte: 5.6
vs
Milwaukee: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
105.5
119
MIL Score
114.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.0 / 42.8
48.6 / 40.4
Assists
28.5 / 25.1
20.0 / 22.0
Blocks
5.0 / 5.6
9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
50.9 / 44.6
48.3 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.2 / 78.6
80.8 / 85.7
Rebounding
43.9 / 44.7
51.0 / 48.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.3
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 16.6
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CHA
MIL
CHA
ML
64%
61-35
61%
60-39
60%
49-32
48%
40-44
ATS
68%
65-31
60%
59-40
60%
49-32
48%
40-44
TTL
55%
53-43
58%
57-42
100%
81-0
100%
84-0
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