DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
8-6 | Road
127
LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
10-5 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
LAKERS
0%
NUGGETS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)
DEN By 1-7 points
19.1%
DEN By 8-14 points
8.4%
LAL By 1-7 points
27.3%
LAL By 8-14 points
22.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
113.36
DENVER
Los Angeles
118.04
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Los Angeles
110
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lakers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
DEN @ LAL
125 - 127
Mar 5, 2026
LAL @ DEN
113 - 120
Jan 20, 2026
LAL @ DEN
115 - 107
Mar 19, 2025
DEN @ LAL
108 - 120
Mar 14, 2025
LAL @ DEN
126 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Los Angeles: 50.3%
vs
Denver: 47.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Los Angeles: 72.4%
vs
Denver: 70.6%
Turnovers (L5)
+21.9% more
Denver: 15.1
vs
Los Angeles: 11.8
Assists (L5)
+15.1% more
Denver: 30.1
vs
Los Angeles: 25.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
113.4
127
LAL Score
118.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 41.1
36.1 / 50.0
Assists
25.6 / 30.1
27.0 / 37.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.5
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.3 / 47.2
44.3 / 61.0
Free Throw %
72.4 / 70.6
78.6 / 57.9
Rebounding
37.8 / 44.3
32.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.4
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 15.1
15.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
DEN
LAL
DEN
ML
61%
68-43
54%
57-48
54%
49-42
55%
47-39
ATS
61%
67-43-1
63%
65-38-2
54%
49-42
55%
47-39
TTL
61%
66-43-2
54%
56-48-1
100%
91-0
100%
86-0
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