PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
6-9 | Road
88
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
11-5 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
POR By 1-7 points
19.3%
POR By 8-14 points
8.6%
HOU By 1-7 points
27.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
22.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
110.6
PORTLAND
Houston
115.12
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Portland
112
PORTLAND
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
POR @ HOU
99 - 106
Jan 9, 2026
HOU @ POR
105 - 111
Jan 7, 2026
HOU @ POR
102 - 103
Nov 14, 2025
POR @ HOU
116 - 140
Jan 18, 2025
HOU @ POR
125 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+19.1% more
Houston: 52.7
vs
Portland: 44.3
Assists (L5)
+13.2% more
Houston: 24.9
vs
Portland: 22.0
Steals (L5)
+11.2% more
Houston: 11.4
vs
Portland: 10.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Houston: 45.6%
vs
Portland: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
110.6
88
HOU Score
115.1
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 36.8
38.5 / 25.6
Assists
24.9 / 22.0
27.0 / 17.0
Blocks
5.2 / 7.6
5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 43.8
45.2 / 33.0
Free Throw %
76.3 / 75.1
68.0 / 77.3
Rebounding
52.7 / 44.3
51.0 / 45.0
Steals
11.4 / 10.2
14.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 20.9
17.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
POR
HOU
POR
ML
61%
69-44
53%
56-49
59%
51-35
55%
49-40
ATS
62%
70-43
62%
65-39-1
59%
51-35
55%
49-40
TTL
51%
58-55
56%
58-46-1
100%
86-0
100%
89-0
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