ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
7-9 | Road
122
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
6-10 | Home
136
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
BULLS
0%
HAWKS
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHI -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
ATL By 1-7 points
22.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
11.9%
CHI By 1-7 points
26.9%
CHI By 8-14 points
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
112.58
ATLANTA
Chicago
114.73
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
109
ATLANTA
Chicago
113
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 227.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 23, 2025
CHI @ ATL
126 - 123
Dec 21, 2025
CHI @ ATL
152 - 150
Oct 27, 2025
ATL @ CHI
123 - 128
Jan 15, 2025
ATL @ CHI
110 - 94
Dec 26, 2024
CHI @ ATL
133 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.8%
Chicago: 88.5%
vs
Atlanta: 73.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
Chicago: 39.5%
vs
Atlanta: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Chicago: 46.2%
vs
Atlanta: 42.4%
Blocks (L5)
+30.0% more
Atlanta: 6.0
vs
Chicago: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
112.6
122
CHI Score
114.7
136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.5 / 33.2
44.2 / 29.4
Assists
27.3 / 30.0
36.0 / 32.0
Blocks
4.2 / 6.0
10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 42.4
57.0 / 45.8
Free Throw %
88.5 / 73.7
90.5 / 73.7
Rebounding
40.5 / 50.8
41.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.6 / 9.4
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 17.4
19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
ATL
CHI
ATL
ML
56%
54-42
50%
52-52
57%
46-35
55%
48-40
ATS
65%
62-33-1
53%
55-48-1
57%
46-35
55%
48-40
TTL
58%
56-40
53%
55-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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