DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
8-7 | Road
123
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
8-5 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DAL By 1-7 points
14.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
5.2%
DEN By 1-7 points
25.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
25.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
111.64
DALLAS
Denver
119.22
DENVER
Simulated Score
Dallas
108
DALLAS
Denver
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
DAL @ DEN
135 - 142
Jan 14, 2026
DEN @ DAL
118 - 109
Dec 23, 2025
DEN @ DAL
130 - 131
Dec 1, 2025
DAL @ DEN
131 - 121
Jan 14, 2025
DEN @ DAL
118 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.8% more
Denver: 10.6
vs
Dallas: 8.6
Assists (L5)
+18.6% more
Denver: 28.6
vs
Dallas: 24.1
Blocks (L5)
+20.5% more
Dallas: 6.1
vs
Denver: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Dallas: 79.4%
vs
Denver: 73.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
111.6
123
DEN Score
119.2
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 37.5
51.7 / 37.0
Assists
28.6 / 24.1
33.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.8 / 6.1
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 50.0
47.8 / 50.5
Free Throw %
73.2 / 79.4
65.5 / 77.8
Rebounding
45.5 / 46.8
42.0 / 44.0
Steals
10.6 / 8.6
4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 14.2
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
DAL
DEN
DAL
ML
54%
57-48
62%
63-39
55%
47-39
54%
44-37
ATS
63%
65-38-2
67%
68-34
55%
47-39
54%
44-37
TTL
54%
56-48-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
86-0
100%
81-0
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