Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Bears MIN @ CHI

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

8-2  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Nov 24 • 1:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

4-6  |  Home

27
Key Game
Dallas Turner
KEY GAME

Dallas Turner

#15 | Linebacker
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Dallas Turner None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
86%
📊
BEARS
14%
VIKINGS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Minnesota)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

55.6%

Bears Cover

44.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-6 points

16.9%

MIN By 7-13 points

16.8%

CHI By 1-6 points

15.7%

CHI By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
24.35
MINNESOTA
22.39
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
24
MINNESOTA
17
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Win
86% Win Prob
A
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Vikings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIN @ CHI 9 - 3
Nov 16, 2025 CHI @ MIN 19 - 17
Sep 8, 2025 MIN @ CHI 27 - 24
Dec 16, 2024 CHI @ MIN 12 - 30
Nov 24, 2024 MIN @ CHI 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +84.7% more
Minnesota: 1.8 vs Chicago: 0.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +30.4% more
Minnesota: 237.0 vs Chicago: 165.0
First Downs (L5) +23.0% more
Minnesota: 23.7 vs Chicago: 18.3
Total Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Minnesota: 350.8 vs Chicago: 295.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 24.4 30
CHI Score 22.4 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 23.7 20.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 165.0 / 237.0 320.0 / 328.0
Rushing Yards 130.9 / 113.8 78.0 / 124.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 295.9 / 350.8 398.0 / 452.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.5 / 5.2 5.5 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
MIN
CHI
MIN
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
TTL
0% 0-4
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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