INDIANA
PACERSIND
6-8 | Road
113
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
10-5 | Home
130
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
PACERS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
IND By 1-7 points
23.5%
IND By 8-14 points
12.7%
HOU By 1-7 points
26.7%
HOU By 8-14 points
18.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
113.66
INDIANA
Houston
115.33
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Indiana
115
INDIANA
Houston
111
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 2, 2026
HOU @ IND
118 - 114
Dec 29, 2025
IND @ HOU
119 - 126
Mar 4, 2025
HOU @ IND
102 - 115
Nov 20, 2024
IND @ HOU
113 - 130
Feb 6, 2024
HOU @ IND
129 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+46.8% more
Houston: 55.6
vs
Indiana: 37.9
Blocks (L5)
+37.4% more
Houston: 6.8
vs
Indiana: 4.9
Steals (L5)
+14.2% more
Indiana: 10.6
vs
Houston: 9.1
Assists (L5)
+10.7% more
Indiana: 27.9
vs
Houston: 24.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
113.7
113
HOU Score
115.3
130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 39.7
33.3 / 22.7
Assists
24.9 / 27.9
25.0 / 19.0
Blocks
6.8 / 4.9
2.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 47.4
46.1 / 53.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 82.5
72.7 / 80.0
Rebounding
55.6 / 37.9
47.0 / 36.0
Steals
9.1 / 10.6
16.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 13.2
14.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
IND
HOU
IND
ML
61%
69-44
48%
47-50
59%
51-35
54%
45-38
ATS
62%
70-43
59%
57-40
59%
51-35
54%
45-38
TTL
51%
58-55
54%
52-45
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
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