Home / NBA Projections NBA / Cavaliers @ Celtics CLE @ BOS

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

15-0  |  Road

117
FINAL
Tue, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

11-3  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
CAVALIERS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.7 points (Boston)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

25.3%

Celtics Cover

74.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -6.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

CLE By 1-7 points

15.9%

CLE By 8-14 points

6.1%

BOS By 1-7 points

26.5%

BOS By 8-14 points

25.0%

AI Model Projected Score
121.47
CLEVELAND
128.13
BOSTON
Simulated Score
100
CLEVELAND
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.7
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 249.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 BOS @ CLE 109 - 98
Nov 30, 2025 BOS @ CLE 117 - 115
Oct 29, 2025 CLE @ BOS 105 - 125
Oct 12, 2025 CLE @ BOS 107 - 138
Feb 28, 2025 CLE @ BOS 123 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.4% more
Boston: 5.5 vs Cleveland: 4.3
Steals (L5) +31.5% more
Cleveland: 7.8 vs Boston: 5.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.9% more
Cleveland: 15.0 vs Boston: 11.4
Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Cleveland: 53.4% vs Boston: 47.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 121.5 117
BOS Score 128.1 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 42.8 53.7 / 34.5
Assists 29.2 / 27.9 32.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.5 / 4.3 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 53.4 51.2 / 49.5
Free Throw % 82.5 / 86.4 71.4 / 88.2
Rebounding 41.8 / 43.8 42.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.8 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 15.0 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CLE
BOS
CLE
ML
57% 61-46
60% 69-46
53% 47-41
56% 55-44
ATS
59% 61-43-3
67% 75-37-3
53% 47-41
56% 55-44
TTL
56% 60-47
59% 68-47
100% 88-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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