Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Grizzlies DEN @ MEM

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

7-5  |  Road

122
FINAL
Tue, Nov 19 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

8-6  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
NUGGETS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Memphis)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

47.1%

Grizzlies Cover

52.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

DEN By 1-7 points

24.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

14.2%

MEM By 1-7 points

26.0%

MEM By 8-14 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
115.09
DENVER
115.81
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
105
DENVER
110
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 8, 2026 MEM @ DEN 119 - 136
Mar 18, 2026 DEN @ MEM 118 - 125
Feb 11, 2026 MEM @ DEN 116 - 122
Nov 24, 2025 DEN @ MEM 125 - 115
Apr 11, 2025 MEM @ DEN 109 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +123.3% more
Memphis: 9.4 vs Denver: 4.2
Turnovers (L5) +16.9% more
Memphis: 15.5 vs Denver: 13.3
Steals (L5) +15.5% more
Memphis: 9.7 vs Denver: 8.4
Rebounding (L5) +14.6% more
Memphis: 47.8 vs Denver: 41.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 115.1 122
MEM Score 115.8 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 36.9 23.7 / 33.3
Assists 28.4 / 28.4 24.0 / 29.0
Blocks 9.4 / 4.2 10.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 46.3 39.8 / 48.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 78.0 61.3 / 63.6
Rebounding 47.8 / 41.7 55.0 / 53.0
Steals 9.7 / 8.4 9.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 13.3 22.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DEN
MEM
DEN
ML
57% 59-44
54% 57-48
50% 41-41
55% 47-39
ATS
63% 65-38
63% 65-38-2
50% 41-41
55% 47-39
TTL
70% 71-31-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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