EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
9-8-0 | Road
5
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
8-8-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ty Emberson
#49 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Emberson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 5.00 | 0.839 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
5.00
--
Save %
0.839
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
100%
SENATORS
0%
OILERS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
EDM By 1 goal
15.2%
EDM By 2-3 goals
14.0%
OTT By 1 goal
19.0%
OTT By 2-3 goals
23.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
2.57
EDMONTON
Ottawa
3.03
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Edmonton
4
EDMONTON
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Oilers (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
OTT @ EDM
4 - 5
Oct 21, 2025
EDM @ OTT
3 - 2
Dec 22, 2024
OTT @ EDM
1 - 3
Nov 19, 2024
EDM @ OTT
5 - 2
Mar 24, 2024
EDM @ OTT
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+102.9% more
Ottawa: 27.6
vs
Edmonton: 13.6
Takeaways (L5)
+18.9% more
Ottawa: 6.1
vs
Edmonton: 5.1
Power Play % (L5)
+4.6%
Edmonton: 19.3%
vs
Ottawa: 14.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
2.6
5
OTT Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.9 / 14.2
13.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
53.3 / 53.3
51.7 / 48.3
Hits
27.6 / 13.6
35.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
14.7 / 19.3
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
32.0 / 32.0
29.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
6.1 / 5.1
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
EDM
OTT
EDM
ML
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
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